Two eras, honestly split. Through 2018-19 the expectation uses free/reduced-lunch subgroup rates (FRL was still a valid poverty measure then). 2020-21 through 2022-23 have no adjusted view: universal school meals broke FRL and Vermont's replacement count didn't exist yet. From 2023-24 the expectation comes from a statewide fit against each district's Act 127 low-income share (direct certification at ≤185% of the federal poverty level — the measure Vermont itself now uses for funding), anchored so the state sits at zero; the Fall 2024 shares stand in for 2023-24 until AOE releases that year's file.
The chart then shows how far each district lands above or below its own expectation. Zero means "scoring exactly as predicted for its students." No test scores are changed — only the yardstick. On this view Vermont as a whole sits exactly on the dashed zero line, by construction. In years where the state reports family-income results for only some grades, actual and expected are both computed over those grades, so the yardstick stays honest. The bolded ★ line marks the district furthest above its expectation in the latest year the roster shares — when every district is below expectation, the ★ is simply the closest to it.
Difference from the state average — focus district, by year
Who the districts serve — share of low-income students
Two eras, two measures. Lines through 2024-25 show the free/reduced-lunch share of English test-takers — a measure the Vermont Agency of Education itself says "may not be an equivalent metric of student poverty": the 2022 dip and 2024–25 jumps reflect universal school meals and a Medicaid direct-certification pilot, not poverty changes. The ◆ marks at ’24-25 are the Act 127 low-income share — direct certification (SNAP/Reach Up/foster/Medicaid at ≤185% of the federal poverty level) from AOE's Long-Term Weighted ADM — the measure the state now uses for funding, and the one this page's expectation view uses from 2023-24 onward.
Spending per weighted pupil
Student population
Why the early grades matter. This year's kindergarten class is the next decade's student body: a small entering class moves up one grade per year, so today's K count previews enrollment, staffing and building needs years before they arrive. Comparing the entering class with total enrollment shows whether a district's future is bigger or smaller than its present.% change view: every district starts at 0% in its first year on the chart and its line shows the cumulative change since then, so different-sized districts can be compared fairly — the line that falls fastest is shrinking fastest, regardless of size. The dashed line is Vermont.
Counts are fall average daily membership, rolled up from every school reporting under the district's supervisory union.
The entering class is tomorrow's enrollment: each small kindergarten class ripples upward grade by grade, previewing student population and facilities needs a decade out. Counts come from the Vermont Agency of Education (AOE) Vermont Education Dashboard enrollment dataset. The 2017–18 school year is a deliberate gap: in the published workbook every school's 2017–18 counts run roughly 1.8× their adjacent years — a fault in the source data, not a real enrollment spike — so the charts break rather than show the corrupted year. 2018–19 through 2020–21 rows are published without district labels and are re-attached here by school.
Total K-12 enrollment
Property wealth per student
Property wealth per student is the equalized value of the district's grand list divided by its enrollment — when a wealthy district shrinks, the wealth behind each remaining student climbs. In the % change view every line starts at 0% in its first charted year and shows the cumulative change since; the dollars view shows each year's level. Dollars are inflation-adjusted (CPI-U) to constant recent dollars; the dashed line is Vermont. Not spending capacity: education taxes pool statewide under Act 68.
The numbers
Suppressed cells (⊘) are withheld in the source for student privacy — they are unknown, not zero. ▲ on a chart's axis marks a district's first year under new governance (Act 46 mergers and later withdrawals) — earlier values describe predecessor districts. Sources: Vermont Agency of Education (assessment dashboards, per-pupil spending reports, graduation rates); assembled and normalized in the vt-education-data project. Prototype — data embedded as of July 2026 · build 1384700+ · 2026-07-10 22:02 UTC.